288
FXUS65 KVEF 261134
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
434 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected across the forecast
  area today, with best chances of flash flooding beneath training
  storms or storms anchored to high terrain as well as across Inyo,
  Esmeralda, and central Nye counties.

* Shower and thunderstorm potential gradually decreases throughout
  the remainder of the work week, allowing for persistent below-
  normal afternoon temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.

A swath of light-to-moderate rain with isolated embedded
thunderstorms continues to push northward through Mohave County into
Lincoln County this morning. The associated cloud cover will work to
inhibit daytime heating in these areas, thus delaying onset of
convection this afternoon. Today, the region will undergo a minor
pattern shift. To start out the day, anomalous moisture around 200%
of normal will remain over the forecast area from southerly flow and
monsoonal moisture advection due to our proximity to the Four
Corners area of high pressure. Throughout the day, a weak shortwave
trough will approach the southern California coast, which will cut
off our moisture flow, return a dry southwest flow to the region,
and will result in a gradual decrease of PWAT values across the CWA.
That said, this shortwave will bring a couple of dynamic ingredients
to the table, including a 75-85 kt 300mb jet and cyclonic vorticity
advection. These mechanisms will provide the necessary lift to tap
into the leftover moisture and supply the region with widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms once again. Today`s primary
impact will be moderate-to-heavy rain, resulting in instances of
flash flooding. While flash flooding is possible areawide beneath
very strong thunderstorms, training storms, and/or terrain-anchored
storms, the best chances of flash flooding exist over Inyo,
Esmeralda, and central Nye counties which is also where the best
morning cloud clearing will occur. As such, issued a Flash Flood
Watch for today (9 AM to 9 PM) for these areas. Convection will
initially favor the higher terrain before pushing westward into
nearby valley locations. Though gusty winds cannot be completely
ruled out, chances of severe-level winds (58+ mph) are less likely
than yesterday, with best odds occurring later in the day as
moisture begins to retreat.

Anomalous remnant moisture on Wednesday will allow for the return of
showers and thunderstorms in the late-morning and afternoon, but to
a much lesser areal extent than the last couple of days. Moisture
continues to retreat through the week, with precipitation chances
gradually decreasing heading into the weekend. This moisture and
associated cloud cover will help keep afternoons 5 to 8 degrees
below seasonal normals through the work week, while overnight lows
stay at-or-around normal. Seasonable temperatures expected over the
weekend.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Quiet
weather is likely this morning before clouds break up and new
thunderstorms develop over the mountains around noon. The primary
concern at the terminal will again be erratic gusty winds, although
there will also be a chance through sunset of a storm directly
affecting the field with briefly heavy rain and lower ceilings. Less
active weather looks likely for Wednesday. Temperatures are not
expected to reach 100F today.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Early this
morning, skies were broken to overcast around 12-15K feet MSL, with
scattered showers around the region causing lower ceilings and
terrain obscuration. Clouds are expected to break up from south to
north this morning, with new thunderstorms developing over the
higher terrain around noon. The main threats will be locally heavy
rain, lower ceilings with terrain obscuration, and erratic gusty
winds up to 40 knots. Storms should end from west to east between
sunset and midnight, with clouds clearing over much of the region
after midnight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Morgan

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NWS Flagstaff Office