126
FXUS65 KVEF 230459
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
959 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief heavy rain, small
  hail, and lightning will remain possible through this evening.

* Drier conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this
  weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Thursday.

A large 564dm low continues to slowly meander across central
California this afternoon, with a strong and deep southerly flow
out ahead of it. This flow pattern has entrained some deeper
surface moisture north into the region over the past couple days,
and as the low moves inland today, cooler air aloft is moving in
helping to add to the instability present. This is sparking a few
corridors of strong thunderstorm activity again this afternoon.
Deep layer shear of 40-50 knots or greater is resulting in very
fast northward storm motions which is helping to limit the flood
threat, but enhancing the risk of small to potentially quarter
sized hail. This risk will remain present through the evening
hours before instability begins to wane and the corridor of
instability and wind shear shifts eastward.

By tomorrow, the low will have moved inland and begun to weaken
considerably, but weak troughing will remain over head with
lingering terrain driven showers possible. Conditions will
continue to dry through the weekend and next week with
temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Showers have exited the area and are not expected through
the TAF period. South winds at 10-15KT are expected through 09Z.
Isolated gusts over 20KT are possible but should be infrequent.
Between 09Z-12Z, winds will drop under 8KT, becoming light and
variable for the rest of the night into Friday morning. Winds on
Friday afternoon will remain under 8KT, becoming east in the
afternoon before backing to the northwest around sunset. A stronger
push of northwest winds is possible around 09Z Friday night with
winds over 10KT and gusts to around 20KT expected. VFR skies will
persist.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms will persist for a few more hours, mainly in
Lincoln County into northwest Arizona. By Friday, other than a few
showers in the terrain of Inyo County in the afternoon, it will be
dry across the region the rest of the TAF period. South to southwest
winds at 10-15KT will continue a few more hours before dropping to
under 10KT areawide by Friday morning. Winds will generally remain
at or below 10KT through Friday afternoon, favoring the north to
northeast in the afternoon. A front will push through northern Inyo
County and portions of the Southern Great Basin Friday evening, with
northwest winds at 10-15KT and gusts to 25KT expected behind this
feature.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Nickerson

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office