334
FXUS65 KVEF 091733
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1033 AM PDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers possible across far southeastern portions of the
  forecast area today.

* A significant warming trend ensues this week, with temperatures
  reaching 15-20 degrees above normal by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through the weekend.

Latest satellite imagery shows a cutoff low spinning off the Baja
Peninsula. Guidance has this low drifting ENE today, just close
enough to bring a ~20% chance of isolated showers across
southeastern San Bernardino and southern Mohave counties, mainly
south of I-40. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two (10%
chance). Gusty outflow winds of 30-40 mph are possible (20%) near
any precipitation activity. Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail.

The main story throughout the forecast period is the significant
warming trend as ridging builds. Highs today are forecast to range
from the upper 60s to low 80s. However, by Sunday, we`re looking at
highs in the upper 70s to mid 90s. Forecast values over the weekend
are 15-20 degrees above normal, resulting in widespread minor
HeatRisk (moderate in Death Valley). Looking at Las Vegas
specifically, latest guidance indicates a 25-50% chance of reaching
90 on Friday, which would tie the earliest occurrence of 90 on
record. Chances for 90+ jump to over 75% on Saturday. Looking ahead
to next week, models are in good agreement that high pressure will
continue to build. In other words, the warming trend shows no sign
of stopping through mid-March. Daily and monthly records are likely
to be challenged.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
winds late this morning will veer to the southeast after 20Z as
speeds increase to 10 to 13 knots with a few gusts near 20 knots.
Winds will diminish after sunset and settle into a typical
southwesterly direction.  Similar wind patterns are expected on
Tuesday, although afternoon speeds are not expected to be as high.
VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday, with FEW to SCT clouds
with bases AOA 15kft AGL expected. Temperatures will warm through
the week, with a greater than 50 percent chance of readings
exceeding 90 degrees by the weekend.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light and variable winds
across the area late this morning will turn southeast by early
afternoon, with speeds increasing to around 10 to 15 knots and a few
higher gusts, particularly during the late afternoon and early
evening. After sunset, winds are expected to diminish, with speeds
in most areas falling below 10 knots. The exception will be in the
northern Owens Valley/KBIH where up-valley winds gusting to near 20
knots are expected through the evening. There is a very low chance
(less than 20 percent) of isolated thunderstorms affecting far
southern areas of the region near KEED/KHII this evening and early
tonight. Similar wind patterns are expected Tuesday, although speeds
will be a bit lighter than what is forecast for today. Aside from
the potential convection mentioned above, VFR conditions will
prevail through Tuesday with only FEW to SCT clouds with bases AOA
12kft AGL expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office