471
FXUS66 KLOX 070308
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
808 PM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...06/510 PM.

Rain due to distant tropical cyclone Marie will continue into
this evening, focused mainly over Los Angeles County but also
affecting portions of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties. A
significant southerly swell will cause hazardous surf conditions
at the beaches through at least Tuesday. Heat will build across
the region through the next several days, with moderate to major
heat impacts for the coasts and valleys Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...06/758 PM.

***UPDATE***

A deep layer of tropical moisture moved over the area today, with
satellite analyzed PWAT values up to around 2 inches over the
southern coastal waters and near-coastal areas of LA and SE
Ventura Counties. An lengthy period of light to moderate rainfall
affected both counties, with brief pockets of heavy rainfall at
times throughout the day. The heavier rain was associated with a
few thunderstorms that moved northeast over the area during the
afternoon hours. Peak rainfall totals ranged from an inch to
around 1.5 inches, highest in a line extending from the eastern
Santa Monicas across Burbank to Beverly Hills and into the eastern
San Gabriels. The Ventura Coast and valleys saw around 0.25 inch
to 0.80 inch, otherwise the remainder of the area had light rain
under 0.10 inch.

Light to locally moderate showers continue over eastern LA County
this evening, on a diminishing trend as the band of showers moves
off to the northeast. A few light showers could persist over the
higher eastern San Gabriels after midnight, otherwise a clearing
and drying trend is expected into Monday after later tonight.

Marie is now a tropical storm, and is centered 700 miles SSW of
Point Conception, forecast to slowly move WNW over the next few
days while weakening. This track will maintain her position well
away from southern California, although the associated tropical
moisture and southerly swells will continue to affect the area.
The south swells have created an ongoing, significant hazard at
area beaches, especially the exposed south facing beaches, with
strong and potentially deadly rip currents.

***From Previous Discussion***

Starting Monday, a significant warming trend is expected. By
Tuesday expect lots of areas of moderate to major HeatRisk for the
coasts and coastal valleys, in particularly the LA Basin.
Temperatures are expected to peak on Wednesday, with widespread
major HeatRisk and highs largely 90 to 105 degrees. There is the
potential that Heat Advisories will be needed (even near the
coast) as early as Tuesday, becoming likely for Wednesday for
most all coasts and valleys. Along the Central Coast, Tuesday is
favored to remain cooler with a very dramatic warming trend for
Wednesday, when temperatures could be in excess of 100 degrees.
The warming trend for the region is due to a combination of a
high pressure ridge that is likely to center over SoCal this
week, along with periods of weak offshore flow. Very warm
overnight lows (even at the coasts) and elevated humidity will
contribute to the heat impacts.

A weak impulse acting on lingering low level moisture may A
boundary lifting back north later Monday and especially into
Tuesday may support another round of light to moderate showers,
and cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm focused across
interior mountains.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...06/200 PM.

Upper level ridge of high pressure expected to remain strong
over the area on Thursday, then weaken some on Friday. During
this time, pressure gradients will likely be weakly offshore
to the north and weakly onshore to the east, resulting
in a continuation of hot temperatures with associated
heat impacts across much of the region on Thursday, with a slight
cool-down possible by Friday. There is also the potential for
some weak to moderate sundowner wind activity across southern
Santa Barbara county each evening on Thursday and Friday.

The position of the ridge by Thursday may be favorable for some
monsoon moisture or injection of tropical moisture from the south.
So it will likely be quite humid with weak morning offshore flow
potentially delaying the sea breeze. This type of pattern could
support isolated showers focused across the interior.

Below normal confidence Friday into next weekend as the ridge may
break down pretty quickly or be somewhat stubborn. Either way it
does look somewhat likely that troughing off the coast may
reestablish at times, keeping the door open for additional
subtropical moisture to shuttle into southwest California.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0010Z.

At 2308Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The inversion
top was near 1200 ft with a temperature of 24 C.

Showers are expected to affect the Ventura and LA County TAF sites
through 02Z-04Z this evening, with a 30% chance of -shra affecting
KSMX and KSBA during this time. CIG heights will be VFR with
VSBYs lowering to MVFR/IFR at times in heavier showers. There is
also a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms for Ventura and Los Angeles
TAF sites, until around 02Z Mon.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. VSBY may lower to 4SM
occasionally with heavier rain through around 02Z Mon. East wind
component exceeding 8 kts is possible (40% chance) through 02Z,
with winds then expected to shift to westerly between 02Z-04Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. VSBY may lower to 4SM
during moderate to heavy showers through around 02Z Mon but may
linger through 04Z, followed by improving conds.

&&

.MARINE...06/131 PM.

For the Outer Waters, through Monday morning SCA level winds and
seas are expected, with a lull on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday
afternoon into at least late next week SCA winds are likely much
of the time.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is a 30% chance of
SCA level winds on Wednesday evening and a 60% chance for
Thursday. Otherwise conditions are expected to be below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 50%
chance of brief SCA level winds Tuesday afternoon and evening, and
a 30-50% chance of SCA winds across western sections on Thursday.
Otherwise conditions are expected to be below SCA levels.

Tropical moisture will stream over the area today and last into
Tuesday, bringing showers to the coastal waters. There is a 15%
chance of thunderstorms this afternoon for the waters south of the
Channel Islands. A large southeast to south swell is impacting
the area, causing increased currents and surges in the vulnerable
harbors. Breaking waves may impact south harbor entrances,
particularly for Ventura and Los Angeles Counties (observed at
Ventura Harbor).

&&

.BEACHES...06/246 PM.

Significant coastal impacts are expected across Southern
California beaches through at least Tuesday. A large southeast to
south swell from Hurricane Marie has moved into waters this
weekend with swell heights of 5-7 feet and a period around 13
seconds.

High surf conditions are expected on south-facing beaches of
Ventura and Los Angeles counties, peaking at 5-8 feet with local
sets to 12 feet through Monday. Potentially life threatening rip
currents will continue as well. The highest surf is near Zuma and
Malibu Beach as well as Long Beach. The Santa Barbara South Coast
will be largely protected from this swell, but there are some
small windows of southeasterly and southwesterly energy that could
cause boosts in the waves. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in place
for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS (a step below high surf advisories) in effect for Santa
Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties.

Moderate coastal flooding has occurred and will continue around
high tides for south facing shores. The actual observed tides
have been running about 6 inches above predictions for sometime
now. The south swell will likely boost that enhancement. As a
result, high tides are expected to reach around 6.7 feet by 6 pm
today, then exceed 7 feet by Monday evening high tide. Expect
significant beach erosion, flooded sandy beach areas, bike paths,
and parking lots, as well as low-lying roads. Of particular
concern will be the Alamitos Peninsula area in Long Beach where
coastal flooding will potentially cause local damage to structures
near time of high tide later today, Other areas of concern the
next couple of days include Catalina Island, and Oxnard to Malibu
(including Point Mugu). COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES remain in effect
for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties where the best combination of
tides and waves will occur, but Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
Counties could also see some isolated issues.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday evening for
      zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Schoenfeld
BEACHES...RS/Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office