311
FXUS66 KLOX 220654
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1054 PM PST Wed Jan 21 2026

updated aviation section

.SYNOPSIS...21/730 PM.

Below normal temperatures are expected through the end of the
work week. Unsettled conditions with scattered off and again
showers will prevail through Friday. Warmer and drier conditions
will resume early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...21/735 PM.

***UPDATE***

A few showers are lining up over and off of the Central Coast this
evening. While the radar returns are healthy, the dry low levels
lingering around from our recent warm spell has evaporated most if
not all of the rain. This is usually a recipe for gusty winds, but
thankfully not much has been reported or measured, but the
potential for a gust or two in the 30 mph range remains in play
through Thursday morning before those lower levels moisten up.
All indications area for this activity to shift to the south over
the next 24 hours, focusing over Ventura and Los Angeles County by
Thursday afternoon. Adjusted rain chances up a bit for tomorrow,
but they are still under 50% as measurable rain will be hit or
miss. The rest of the messaging for light rain totals and rates,
small chances for isolated thunderstorms and/or heavier showers
all look good still.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak low pressure system is currently spinning off over the
coastal waters along the Central Coast, and is shuttling cooler
temperatures and clouds into the SoCal region. Unsettled weather
with scatted showers and highs in the 60s are expected through
Friday. Winds have returned to onshore for the majority of the
area, marking a significant change in the overall weather pattern
compared to the previous many days of dry sunny days driven by
offshore flow.

There is a 30-50 percent chance of rain at some point between
tonight (Wednesday night) and Friday. This evening, scattered
showers will be focused over the Central Coast and Santa Barbara
County, followed by Ventura and LA Counties on Thursday and
Friday. Rainfall intensity will be light to moderate, although
there is a less than 10 percent chance of a heavier shower or
thunderstorm with brief peak rainfall rates of 0.25 to 0.5 inches
per hour. Heavier showers or thunderstorms will be most likely on
Thursday across eastern Santa Barbara County, Ventura and Los
Angeles Counties. Rainfall totals will be highly variable, but
mostly under 0.25 inches, with the highest totals likely occur
across south- facing slopes of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los
Angeles Counties. Even so, high end rain fall totals top out at
around 0.5 inch for favored areas such as the San Gabriel
Mountains. Snow levels will generally be above 6500 feet with
light snow accumulations possible at ski resort levels.

By Saturday, the center of the Storm system will be far to the
south of SoCal, making way for more sunshine and warmer
temperatures. However, strong winds aloft and surface pressure
gradients will yield gusty northerly winds Saturday into Sunday,
particularly across the mountains and the Interstate-5 Corridor.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...21/237 PM.

The low pressure system will clear out of the region over the
weekend, and a weak ridge of high pressure will set up early next
week. This will allow for a gradual warming and drying trend, with
chances for weak to moderate Santa Ana Winds at times. Highs early
next week will rise to a couple degrees above normal, with high
60s to low 70s common. This warmer spell however will be much
cooler than last week, when highs in the 80s were widespread.

A dry weather pattern is favored through the end of the month. The
next signal for rain chances starts in early February.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0603Z.

At 0449Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1200 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was at 1700 ft with a temperature of 17 C.

Low to moderate confidence in all TAFs. -SHRA possible across all
airfields any time through the period, but highest confidence
from 15Z-03Z. Moderate chance for RA at times with any heavier
showers. Lower confidence in minimum flight cat, but IFR to MVFR
most likely in any rain. No significant wind issues expected.

Low but nonzero chance for a TSTM to develop, better chances
(5-10%) focused KSBA and south to southeast from 12Z through 06Z.
Any TSTM is capable of producing brief heavy downpours, small
hail, lightning, and gusty erratic winds.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. -SHRA possible any time
through the period, but highest confidence in timing reflected in
TAF. RA possible with any heavier showers. Lower confidence in min
flight cats, but BKN/OVC 010-025 and vsbys 3-5SM most likely
minimums. Low chance for BKN/OVC 005-009. moderate confidence
that any east wind component remains under 8 kts, but best chances
for exceeding this is from 13Z-19Z (30%).

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. -SHRA possible any time
through the period, but highest confidence in timing reflected in
TAF. RA possible with any heavier showers. Lower confidence in min
flight cats, but BKN/OVC 008-025 and vsbys 3-5SM most likely
minimums. Low chance for LIFR conds. No significant wind issues
anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...21/1008 PM.

Winds and seas are expected to remain relatively calm through
Thursday, then there is a 20 percent chance for locally gusty Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) winds across the Outer Waters and into the
western Santa Barbara Channel Friday into Saturday morning.
Another round of light Santa Ana winds is forecast to return
Saturday night into Sunday, but chances are low for any impactful
nearshore winds at this time.

Rain showers are possible tonight through Thursday night. This
activity could linger into early Friday morning across the waters
adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties.

There is a very low chance (5% chance) for a thunderstorm or two
to develop Thursday morning to Thursday afternoon focused on the
waters south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/RK
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...Phillips/Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office