836
FXUS66 KLOX 230526
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1026 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...22/126 PM.

Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue
through this evening. A quiet Friday will transition into a weak
Santa Ana Wind event this weekend, bringing drier conditions and
warmer temperatures to the region into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...22/124 PM.

A morning defined by numerous of strong showers and thunderstorms
across all four counties led to a slew of Flood Advisories,
Special Weather Statements, and even a couple of Severe
Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings. As the upper level
low responsible for the active last 36 hours continues to move
eastward, subsidence on the backside of the upper low will help
to inhibit the vertical growth of storms, thus we are expecting
the most significant weather to have already passed. However, the
Flash Flood Warning in eastern LA County will continue into the
afternoon, as will many of the Flood Advisories. Scattered showers
and maybe a couple thunderstorms may develop into the early
afternoon, but not expecting the magnitude or number of storms as
we saw this morning.

Dry and warmer weather will return Fri-Sun with light offshore
winds in place. At this time any offshore winds are expected to
mostly below advisory levels, and remain confined to the mountains
and some valleys. Temperatures will warm to near or slightly above
normal, so not nearly as warm as last week.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...22/124 PM.

A weak Santa Ana event will continue into next week, allowing for
warmer (near normal high temps) and drier conditions to prevail.
Winds will most likely remain confined to the mountains and some
valleys. Onshore flow is expected to return around mid week with
temperatures returning to normal levels. There are some model
solutions indicating a return of wet weather just after Halloween.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0524Z.

At 0441Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 06Z TAF Package. Isolated showers
roughly through 23/15Z for KSBP, KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, & KLGB. Mainly
VFR CIGs 030-050 with MVFR CIGs as low as 015 under showers. After
24/00Z, VFR CIGs should scatter out.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Isolated shower or two
possible through 23/12Z which could bring MVFR CIGs as low as
015-020. Otherwise, VFR CIGs 035-060 through 24/00Z. Good
confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. VFR CIGs & occasionally
MVFR through 24/00Z with slight chc for light shower tomorrow
afternoon. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...22/743 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Gusty AVDAFDLOX
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely through Friday
night. For Saturday through Monday, winds and seas are expected
to remain below SCA levels, then there is a 30-40 percent chance
of SCA conds near and SW of Point Conception (PZZ673-676) Monday
night through Tuesday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA
level winds at times through Friday evening. Otherwise, winds and
seas should remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night, but
with a 30% chance of SCA conds Monday night and Tuesday night.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday night, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most
areas. The only exceptions will be the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel with a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds late
Friday afternoon and evening. As winds shift to northeast, there
is a 40% chance of SCA level wind gusts nearshore from Ventura to
Santa Monica late Friday night through Saturday morning.

Isolated showers continue to affect portions of the waters this
evening with coverage diminishing overnight. There is a low (under
10 percent) chance of thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, locally
rough seas and even waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB/BL
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office